| Venue: Stade de France, Paris Date: Saturday 7 October Time: 20:00 BST |
| Coverage: Listen to live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live and follow text updates on the BBC Sport website and app. |
A delve into the recent history of Scotland’s meetings with Ireland offers little for those looking to convince themselves the Scots can pull off a major upset in Paris next week.
But the dazzling brilliance of Darcy Graham offers just a little bit of hope that anything is possible.
Even taking into account the desperately poor quality of the opposition, the winger’s involvements against Romania lit up what was another horrible mismatch at this World Cup.
“Some of Darcy’s tries were truly world class,” gushed his captain, Grant Gilchrist.
“He’s flying now”, head coach Gregor Townsend chimed in.
Graham’s big moment in the opening game against South Africa was an uncharacteristic butchering of a glaring try-scoring opportunity. He ignored Duhan van der Merwe outside him with a free run to the line and went it alone but was hauled down.
Since then, the winger has looked back to his devastating best.
He came off the bench to score against Tonga and, on Saturday, it was akin to watching a world champion boxer pitched in against a pub fighter. He danced merry rings around the beleaguered Romanians.
His four tries at the Stade Pierre Mauroy took his tally in a Scotland jersey to 24 in just 38 Tests. That’s an outstanding return, comparable with the very best wingers in the game right now.
Graham is closing in on Stuart Hogg’s Scotland record of 27. Not only will he break that, at his current rate he’ll obliterate it. “I’ll get there when I get there,” he said, but the immediate goal is staying alive in this World Cup.
To do that, Scotland will need to produce a level of performance they have never reached before to derail the Irish juggernaut in Paris next weekend.
“It’s do our die now,” Graham said. “It’s pretty much a World Cup final for us.
“We’re going to Paris to win. We’ve got the capability to go out there and beat any team in the world. We just have to get things right, not for 40 minutes or 60 minutes but for 80 minutes. We have to turn up and perform.”
What Scotland must do to reach quarter-finals
If, as expected, South Africa beat Tonga with a bonus-point on Sunday, they will move onto 15 points.
That is the maximum Scotland can reach and the Springboks’ win in that opener in Marseille means they would go through on the head-to-head. The upshot of that is that Ireland are the only team the Scots could overhaul.
To do that, Townsend’s side need to win and deny the Irish a bonus-point by triumphing by a margin of eight points or more.
You have to go back 22 years to find the last time they did that – a 32-10 Six Nations victory at Murrayfield in September 2001.
There is a scenario where Scotland, Ireland and South Africa could all end up on 15 points and points difference comes into play, but whatever happens only a victory over Ireland keeps the Scots in the hunt.
You could argue all the pressure is on Ireland. They are the number one team in the world and, having just turned over the defending champions, they are many people’s favourites to lift the trophy.
Their relationship with the World Cup is not a happy one. Great Ireland sides of the past have choked on the biggest stage, and contrived to exit the tournament long before their talent suggested they should.
Townsend, though, does not expect the ghosts of World Cups past to plant any seeds of doubt in the minds of the current crop, who have swept all before them in recent times.
“Ireland are the number one team in the world, they are on the back of 16 [consecutive] wins so I’m sure they aren’t thinking about what has happened in previous tournaments,” he said.
“They have got a lot of confidence in how they have played over the last two or three years and they’ll take a lot of confidence from the last game they managed to get a win there [against South Africa].”
Did anyone make case for inclusion?
A procession against Romania was hardly the ideal setting to demonstrate readiness to face the best team in the world, but several Scottish players did their case no harm.
Hamish Watson set the agenda with some powerful early carries and did not let up. Could he unseat Rory Darge in the back-row?
Matt Fagerson impressed at number eight and reminded us that he did not do a whole lot wrong to lose that jersey in the first place.
He has simply been a victim of Jack Dempsey’s recent excellence, but is there a case to start Fagerson and deploy the abrasive Dempsey in that crucial final quarter?
Chris Harris delivered a storming performance on both sides of the ball. Might Townsend be tempted to sacrifice the more attack-minded Huw Jones and utilise Harris’s outstanding defensive nous from the start?
These are massive calls for Townsend ahead of the match that will define Scotland’s World Cup.
He has to find the right formula to do something he has been unable to do in eight attempts as Scotland head coach and beat the Irish. Now would be a good time to start.
