| Venue: Stade de France, Paris Date: Friday, 20 October Kick-off: 20:00 BST |
| Coverage: Commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live (build-up from 19:00 BST), plus live text on the BBC Sport website and app. |
This week, New Zealand returned to their team bus only to find it boxed in by a badly-parked 4×4.
If the odds are correct, they will expend little more effort in clearing their path to the final.
Argentina are 10-1 outsiders in a two-horse race.
The two teams have played each other 36 times and New Zealand have won 33, including all three World Cup encounters.
The history leans one way. But the pricing of that bet is slanted even more by New Zealand’s recent form.
Since their opening-day defeat by France – a game they led until the 55th minute – they have stealthily, steadily built formidable momentum.
Walloping wins over Namibia, Italy and Uruguay have given them the stand-out attacking stats of any of the last-four teams. So far in France they average nearly 700m with ball in hand, 14 clean breaks and 35 defenders beaten per game.
But even more compelling to New Zealand’s title credentials was how they glistened under the Stade de France lights on Saturday evening.
In their quarter-final win over Ireland there was steel in defence and scalpel-like accuracy in attack.
They tackled Ireland to a near standstill. By the match’s epic final play, Johnny Sexton’s stride was down to a shuffle as he and his side tried in vain to find a way through.
By contrast, half an hour earlier, the mercurial Richie Mo’unga had glided though Ireland’s defensive wall like he had a ticket for platform nine and three-quarters to set up Will Jordan’s try.
It was a typically clinical raid into Irish territory. Beauden Barrett’s deft chip had set up wing Leicester Fainga’anuku’s early score before Ardie Savea stealthily stayed wide to sting Ireland at the end of a pre-planned line-out play.
New Zealand made only six entries into the opposition 22m, compared to Ireland’s 14, but they were ruthless in the red zone.
The whole performance was set on a base of spotless basics. New Zealand were perfect on their own line-out ball. They didn’t commit a single handling error.
It was quintessential New Zealand – smart, slick, skilful – and enough to make the Pumas shrink and belief wilt.
But Argentina’s coach Michael Cheika is not one to be awed by All Black magic.
In his first coaching meeting with New Zealand, he masterminded a 27-19 victory for an unfancied Australia side to take them to their first Rugby Championship title in four years.
Two and a half months later, he strode on to the Twickenham turf and apparently leaked some of his team’s tactics for the following day’s Rugby World Cup final.
Whether the typed reminders – revealed by snapper’s telephoto lens – to “rattle Kieran Read”, “expose Nehe Milner-Skudder and Julian Savea” under the high ball and “own the air” were genuine or a bit of gamesmanship wasn’t clear.
But his team weren’t far off. With 15 minutes to go and trailing 21-17 they were in the fight, before the All Blacks stretched away to a 34-17 win.
Cheika led Argentina to their first away win over the All Blacks with victory in Christchurch 2022. He has even coached against New Zealand in the 13-man code, having briefly taken on the job as Lebanon’s rugby league coach.
“When they come at us or when the battle is on, that is the moment you need to use those experiences,” Cheika said of his and his team’s previous successes against New Zealand.
“That is where that comes in handy because you have felt it before, you have done it before.”
Even with Emiliano Boffelli’s pinpoint kicking, some dangerous runners, a strong scrum and fevered support in the stands, a repeat will be tough.
Pablo Matera, who was key to Argentina’s only two wins in the fixture, is out injured. In his absence, Savea and All Blacks captain Sam Cane, will seize on every glimmer in the breakdown.
The step up in quality will likely be too big to bridge for Argentina, who have benefitted from a run on the ‘softer’ side of the tournament draw, anyway.
Cheika may have his plan to put the skids under New Zealand but, as they showed on a Parisian back road and the city’s biggest stage alike, these All Blacks don’t mind dirtying their hands to get to a fourth Rugby World Cup title.
